AUD/USD no-signal update.

The RBA raised the cash rate by 25bp to 4.85% on 2026-11-03 with a 6-3 majority, citing materially higher inflation forecasts and upside risks to inflation expectations. This hawkish surprise would typically support AUD. However, AUD/USD rose only 0.45% to 0.7015, remaining below the 0.7034 high from 2026-10-21, with a slightly negative 5-day change of -0.25%. The 20-day change of +0.92% shows modest medium-term strength but no decisive breakout. The muted price response to the hawkish shift, with the pair trading near its 5-day and 20-day averages, suggests uncertainty rather than directional conviction.

What could change the view. The RBA's hawkish pivot could support AUD if rate differentials widen, but the immediate market reaction was subdued. A break above 0.7034 or sustained weakness below 0.6980 would be needed to establish direction. Global risk sentiment and commodity price swings from Middle East conflict remain unpriced wildcards.