USD/CAD has declined 1.90% over 20 reference observations to 1.3969, with the rate now below both its 5-observation average of 1.4013 and 20-observation average of 1.4130, indicating sustained downward momentum. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on 28 October 2026, citing stronger-than-expected Canadian growth and concerns about persistent inflation from elevated energy prices. This hawkish shift contrasts with the ECB's hold stance on 29 October, providing relative CAD support. If the rate continues below the 5-observation average, further USD weakness against CAD is likely.
Reference price · 30 Oct 20261.39689
Assessment date2 Nov 2026
View published17:36 UTC
The reference-rate context20-observation change -1.902%
2 Oct 202630 Oct 2026
5-observation change-0.189%
5-observation average 1.40125
20-observation average 1.41298
What could change the view. The BoC explicitly noted uncertainty around Canada-US trade relations and signaled only cautious further tightening, which could limit CAD gains. A rebound above the 5-observation average of 1.4013 would invalidate the bearish USD view.
Sources & assessment.
The view was generated with Workers AI and checked against these sources. Cross-rates,
percentage changes and averages are calculated by fx.reviews from ECB observations. The
underlying reference data is freely available.
Assessment: the ECB reference observation on 2 Nov 2026. A move
within ±0.01% is flat. A missing observation stays unverified
rather than being replaced by a later price.
Daily reference rates are published for information, not transaction purposes. This
educational directional view is not personalised investment advice, a live dealing quote
or an order to trade. Costs, spreads and execution are not included in the outcome.