The EUR/USD reference rate fell to 1.1225 on 2026-10-02, extending a persistent decline with a 20-day change of -3.42 percent and a 5-day change of -1.56 percent, both indicating sustained euro weakness against the dollar. The rate now trades materially below both its 5-day average of 1.1322 and its 20-day average of 1.1470, suggesting downward momentum has carried through late September and early October. If this pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues, the euro may weaken further against the dollar by the 2026-10-05 assessment date.
Reference price · 2 Oct 20261.12250
Assessment date5 Oct 2026
View published19:36 UTC
The reference-rate context20-observation change -3.416%
4 Sept 20262 Oct 2026
What could change the view. The pace of decline could moderate or reverse if short-term positioning becomes stretched, or if the ECB Governing Council decisions announced on 2026-10-02 alter market expectations in ways not yet reflected in these reference rates.
Sources & assessment.
The view was generated with Workers AI and checked against these sources. Cross-rates,
percentage changes and averages are calculated by fx.reviews from ECB observations. The
underlying reference data is freely available.
Assessment: the ECB reference observation on 5 Oct 2026. A move
within ±0.01% is flat. A missing observation stays unverified
rather than being replaced by a later price.
Daily reference rates are published for information, not transaction purposes. This
educational directional view is not personalised investment advice, a live dealing quote
or an order to trade. Costs, spreads and execution are not included in the outcome.