23 Sept 2026 / Daily FX signal
USD/JPY
USD/JPY has risen 1.85% over five days and 0.47% on 23 September to 157.92, pushing above both its five-day average of 157.19 and twenty-day average of 156.59. The pair remains 0.72% below its twenty-day starting level, suggesting this recent dollar strength may be retracing within a broader weakening trend that saw the rate fall from near 160 in late August to below 154 by mid-September. If this recovery stalls near current levels, the yen could regain ground.
What could change the view. The FOMC met on 15-16 September and any hawkish surprise in the unpublished statement details could extend dollar strength. A sustained break above 158 would weaken the bearish case.
USD/JPY moved from 157.918 to 158.855 (+0.593%) between the 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24 reference rates. The move went against the published bearish direction. This measures reference-rate direction, not a realised trading return.
Outcome commentary. The bearish USD/JPY thesis was not confirmed at the next ECB reference observation, with the pair rising 0.59% to 158.855 rather than stalling and reversing. The signal correctly identified the technical setup of a recovery within a broader downtrend, but the anticipated stall near 157.92 did not materialize as dollar strength persisted. This illustrates the limitation of mean-reversion signals based on percentage distances from moving averages when underlying momentum continues to favor the counter-trend move.
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